Early estimates of case fatality rate (CFR, ratio of deaths divided by documented infections) in the elderly were very high and they played an instrumental role in disseminating both fear and alacrity in dealing with this serious pandemic. Early estimates of CFR from China (48) described CFR of 8% in the age group 70-79 and 14.8% in those ≥80 years. Extremely high CFR estimates were also reported initially from Italy (49) and New York (50). However, the number of infected individuals was much larger than the documented cases (51). Therefore, IFR is much lower than CFR. We are aware of three previous evaluations of age-stratified IFR estimates that combine seroprevalence data with age-specific COVID-19 mortality statistics (4, 5, 52). Levin et al (4) is also the basis for the US CDC pandemic planning scenarios (53). Levin et al report IFR 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85 (4) without separating nursing home deaths.

I use this as an example because it was pointed out at Small Dead Animals that the most an application like that should cost is $250,000 to design, maybe another million to implement at the outside most.
$100,000,000 One hundred million.










Sarah said: "They didn't know Afghanistan, a place that is like our primordial tales where parents are served a stew of their children, a place that not only has never been civilized but relishes barbarism, would fall that fast."
Okay, you pushed my button Sarah. Here doth ensue a rant:
Can we all stop pretending these people are stupid? They're not. They are the very smartest of the smart, and they are EATING OUR LUNCH.
This fall of Saigon II is not a mistake. Not a miscalculation. Not a screw-up. It is quite deliberate. Everyone involved, for the last 20 years, knew this would happen. The Afghans knew it, the Taliban knew it, NATO knew it. They fucking well knew.
I'm not going to pretend that I knew it, but as news reports stop being able to lie their way out of this fiasco, reports keep popping up of documents and officials in and out of government who called this right from the start. They knew.
So why the surprise now? Why turn Trump's orderly and gradual withdrawal into a rout with people falling off airplanes? Because now they can pin the disaster on the doddering old man in the White House who can't find the bathroom on his own. Perfect fall guy.
Deeper issue, why let it happen at all? Because what happens in Afghanistan is not important. They don't care. As long as their gravy train keeps running and those biscuit wheels keep sopping up all that beautiful wonderful gravy, they do not give a single shit about guys falling off the outside of C-17s trying to escape the Taliban. They don't care about the world-wide reputation of the United States. They don't care about soldiers dying for nothing. They don't care if inflation drives the whole middle class into poverty, destroys your savings and fucks over the whole nation for 20 years.
Those things are not important, okay? They don't care.
And how do we know this? We know because we've seen it before! Anybody out there old enough to remember John F. fucking Kennedy playing chicken with Nikita Khrushchev over the Cuban Missile Crisis? It was revealed in his memoirs that Khrushchev turned those ships around because he finally understood that Kennedy was insane. Kennedy wasn't paying any attention to Khrushchev, he was busy positioning himself to win the coming election.
It wasn't important to Kennedy what the Soviets did. It wasn't important if a war started. It wasn't even important if nukes were launched. He didn't care. It was only the next crooked election that mattered. All those Joint Chiefs of Staff guys and the whole Cabinet knew that, and they let him do it.
Okay? That's what this really is. We are the stupid, clueless idiots who go along and let them do it.
Here endeth the rant.
Update: Support for my thesis is showing up.
Yeah. We've seen them do this shit before. They're doing it all the time now.
You really think the US Border Patrol can't secure their southern border? They can! They've just been told not to. You really think the Portland cops can't stand up against Antifa? They can! They've just been told not to.
You really think it's an accident that the USA abandoned Bagram air-force base with its fortifications and multiple landing strips because they couldn't stand up to the toothless hillbillies called the Taliban? You really think that the US military would -choose- to stage out of the single landing strip of Kabul airport? No way. This is an arrangement.
Whoever is pulling Biden's strings ordered this. I assume because they have to. I must assume this is because they're all guilty of things that will earn them the death penalty, and have nothing to lose. I think the big movers and shakers in DemocRat Washington have been doing shit that if we all knew about it, there'd be no crack deep enough for them to hide in. Pizzagate, if true, would be the least of it.